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TOR 7 / TEX 2
TORToronto Blue Jays48%
TEXTexas Rangers52%

at Globe Life Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TORAway starterSpencer MilesConfirmed
Model pickTEX moneyline52%Model 20260914_auto
TEXHome starterJacob deGromConfirmed
TOR48%ML +147
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
TEX52%ML -176

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.0 pts

Model's 8.84-run total sits nearly two runs above the 7.0 market line despite deGrom (3.79 ERA, 11.31 K/9, 1.07 WHIP) facing Miles (2.65 ERA, 1.09 WHIP) — that gap looks structural, so I side with the market and lean under. On the side, model has TEX at 51.7% vs market 59.7%; I slightly prefer TEX at home behind deGrom but not at that price.

total far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.6
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Spencer MilesTOR starter / away
Projected K2.8Actual 4 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.576%over
O 2.553%over
O 3.531%over
O 4.516%under
O 5.57%under
O 6.53%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Jacob deGromTEX starter / home
Projected K6.1Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -122 fanduel / U +110 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 5.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%under
O 3.584%under
O 4.571%under
O 5.556%under
O 6.540%under
O 7.527%under
O 8.517%under
O 9.510%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+147 / -176TOR / TEX moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +101 / U -125
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total