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BOS 4 / TEX 3
BOSBoston Red Sox48%
TEXTexas Rangers52%

at Globe Life Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
BOSAway starterSonny GrayConfirmed
Model pickTEX moneyline52%Model 20260914_auto
TEXHome starterTyler AlexanderConfirmed
BOS48%ML -126
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
TEX52%ML +107

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.7 pts

Model's 51.7% on TEX is ~9 points above market's 43% implied, and the structural read favors Boston: better record (82-70 vs 76-76), higher OPS (.736 vs .698), and Sonny Gray's 2.76 ERA/1.17 WHIP over 156.2 IP against Alexander's thinner 66.2 IP body of work. Both starters under 3.50 ERA argues under the 7.5 despite the mildly hitter-friendly park (1.04); model's 8.64 total looks high.

Large model-market gapace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.6
Market total7.8
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Sonny GrayBOS starter / away
Projected K5.2Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -110 draftkings / U -110 fanatics7 books at this line
Model over 5.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.574%over
O 4.558%over
O 5.541%over
O 6.527%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Tyler AlexanderTEX starter / home
Projected K2.6Actual 0 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.572%under
O 2.547%under
O 3.526%under
O 4.512%under
O 5.55%under
O 6.52%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-126 / +107BOS / TEX moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-156)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.8O -115 / U -108
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total