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BOS 2 / TEX 4
BOSBoston Red Sox47%
TEXTexas Rangers53%

at Globe Life Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
BOSAway starterPatrick SandovalConfirmed
Model pickTEX moneyline53%Model 20260914_auto
TEXHome starterJacob deGromConfirmed
BOS47%ML +120
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
TEX53%ML -142

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#10
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.6 pts

Home starter is TBD with fallback stats (2.90 ERA over 108.7 IP belongs to someone else), so the model's 51.7% on TEX rests on shaky ground versus the market's 46%. Still, Sandoval's 1.76 WHIP and 4.58 ERA in 55 IP at a 1.04 park is a soft matchup, so a small lean to TEX at plus money and to the over of 8.0 is defensible without conviction.

pitcher data fallback

Projection Context

Projected margin0.0
Projected total8.8
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Patrick SandovalBOS starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +132 fanduel / U -160 betmgm4 books at this line
Model over 5.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.569%over
O 4.552%over
O 5.535%under
O 6.521%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Jacob deGromTEX starter / home
Projected K6.5Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -111 fanduel / U -115 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 6.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.587%over
O 4.576%over
O 5.562%over
O 6.547%over
O 7.533%over
O 8.522%under
O 9.513%under
O 10.58%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+120 / -142BOS / TEX moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -118 / U -102
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total