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OAK 9 / TEX 2
OAKOakland Athletics40%
TEXTexas Rangers60%

at Globe Life Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
OAKAway starterJacob LopezConfirmed
Model pickTEX moneyline60%Model 20260831_auto
TEXHome starterCody BradfordConfirmed
OAK40%ML +139
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
TEX60%ML -164

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.2 pts

Model (60.4%) and market (59.2%) agree on Texas, and the underlying gap supports it: TEX at 69-70 with 5.4 RPG versus a 53-86 OAK club posting a .512 OPS. Bradford's 3.42 ERA is thin over 26.3 IP with a 1.52 WHIP and 4.44 K/9, so he is not a suppression source. Both starters carry WHIPs near 1.50 in a 1.04 park; slight lean over the 8.0.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total8.8
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Jacob LopezOAK starter / away
Projected K5.5Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +110 fanatics / U -130 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 5.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.563%over
O 5.546%over
O 6.531%over
O 7.519%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Cody BradfordTEX starter / home
Projected K4.4Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +128 betonlineag / U -148 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 4.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.563%under
O 4.545%under
O 5.529%under
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+139 / -164OAK / TEX moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -104 / U -118
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total