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LAA 1 / TEX 2
LAALos Angeles Angels53%
TEXTexas Rangers47%

at Globe Life Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
LAAAway starterReid DetmersConfirmed
Model pickLAA moneyline53%Model 20260817_auto
TEXHome starterMacKenzie GoreConfirmed
LAA53%ML +120
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
TEX47%ML -142

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time10.1 pts

Model likes LAA at 53.3% while market implies 56.8% TEX — a ~10pt gap. Detmers (3.78 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 10.5 K/9) does grade out ahead of Gore (4.45 ERA, 1.26 WHIP), but LAA's 51-77 record and the internally inconsistent team lines (TEX 2.5 RPG against a .698 OPS) argue for deferring to the market. Slight under lean on 7.5 given Detmers' WHIP and TEX's low scoring rate.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.8
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Reid DetmersLAA starter / away
Projected K6.1Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +105 betmgm / U -116 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 6.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.585%over
O 4.572%over
O 5.557%under
O 6.541%under
O 7.528%under
O 8.518%under
O 9.510%under
O 10.56%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

MacKenzie GoreTEX starter / home
Projected K6.8Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -148 fanduel / U +116 fanduel3 books at this line
Model over 6.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.596%over
O 3.589%over
O 4.579%over
O 5.566%over
O 6.551%over
O 7.537%under
O 8.525%under
O 9.516%under
O 10.59%under
O 11.55%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+120 / -142LAA / TEX moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+156)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -120
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total