sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

WSN 6 / TEX 0
WSNWashington Nationals49%
TEXTexas Rangers51%

at Globe Life Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
WSNAway starterCade CavalliConfirmed
Model pickTEX moneyline51%Model 20260817_auto
TEXHome starterKumar RockerConfirmed
WSN49%ML +108
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
TEX51%ML -125

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.6 pts

Taking the other side of both model and market: WSN owns the better starter (Cavalli 3.36 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 9.94 K/9 vs Rocker 4.50/1.40) and a far better offense (.820 OPS, 4.7 RPG vs .698, 3.3). Market's -131 on Texas looks like home-field default. Model's 9.29 total sits 1.8 runs above the 7.5 line despite Texas scoring 3.3 per game; under.

total far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.3
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Cade CavalliWSN starter / away
Projected K5.9Actual 11 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -125 fanatics / U +116 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 5.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.583%over
O 4.569%over
O 5.553%over
O 6.538%over
O 7.525%over
O 8.515%over
O 9.59%over
O 10.55%over
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 11 strikeouts.

Kumar RockerTEX starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +110 bovada / U -120 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%under
O 4.550%under
O 5.534%under
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+108 / -125WSN / TEX moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+168)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -114 / U -105
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total