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WSN 0 / TEX 2
WSNWashington Nationals44%
TEXTexas Rangers56%

at Globe Life Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
WSNAway starterAndrew AlvarezConfirmed
Model pickTEX moneyline56%Model 20260817_auto
TEXHome starterJacob deGromConfirmed
WSN44%ML +155
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
TEX56%ML -185

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.1 pts

Model's 9.20 total sits 1.7 runs above the 7.5 market line, which looks structurally wrong with deGrom (10.96 K/9, 1.17 WHIP) and a Texas offense scoring just 2.8 runs per game. Under is the cleaner side. On the moneyline the market's 60% on TEX exceeds the model's 55.9%; the WSN offense comparison (4.8 RPG, .820 OPS vs .698) keeps this from being more than a lean.

total far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Andrew AlvarezWSN starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +116 fanduel / U -137 betonlineag5 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%over
O 4.542%over
O 5.526%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Jacob deGromTEX starter / home
Projected K6.0Actual 10 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -130 fanatics / U +110 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 5.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.584%over
O 4.571%over
O 5.555%over
O 6.540%over
O 7.527%over
O 8.517%over
O 9.510%over
O 10.55%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+155 / -185WSN / TEX moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+117)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -103 / U -117
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total