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SFG 4 / TEX 5
SFGSan Francisco Giants37%
TEXTexas Rangers63%

at Globe Life Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SFGAway starterBlade TidwellConfirmed
Model pickTEX moneyline63%Model 20260803_auto
TEXHome starterMacKenzie GoreConfirmed
SFG37%ML +165
Base model probability63%Moneyline only
TEX63%ML -195

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.5 pts

Model (62.7%) and market (64.2%) agree on Texas; no reason to fight that. Tidwell's 3.00 ERA over 12 IP in 2 starts is not predictive, so the model's comparison on the away starter is thin either way. Gore's 9.98 K/9 over 122.7 IP plays up even with a 4.77 ERA. Texas at 3.4 RPG argues under the market 8.0, against the model's 9.2.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.9
Projected total8.9
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Blade TidwellSFG starter / away
Projected K3.5Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +130 bovada / U -161 betonlineag4 books at this line
Model over 4.527%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%over
O 2.566%over
O 3.545%under
O 4.527%under
O 5.514%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

MacKenzie GoreTEX starter / home
Projected K5.5Actual 4 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -111 fanduel / U -106 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 6.532%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.564%under
O 5.547%under
O 6.532%under
O 7.520%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+165 / -195SFG / TEX moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+105)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -112
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total