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SFG 5 / TEX 1
SFGSan Francisco Giants52%
TEXTexas Rangers48%

at Globe Life Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SFGAway starterLogan WebbConfirmed
Model pickSFG moneyline52%Model 20260803_auto
TEXHome starterCal QuantrillConfirmed
SFG52%ML +110
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
TEX48%ML -130

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.8 pts

Market is a near coin flip (-107/-103) and the model's 52.4% on SFG is within noise. Webb (3.93 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, full data) is the only known quantity here; Texas lists TBD with fallback stats, so both side and total are shaky. TEX's 3.8 RPG argues under the 8.0 line despite the model's 9.13, which I read as a structural miss given the unresolved starter.

pitcher data fallback

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.0
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Logan WebbSFG starter / away
Projected K4.9Actual 8 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -152 betrivers / U +130 betonlineag4 books at this line
Model over 4.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.553%over
O 5.536%over
O 6.522%over
O 7.513%over
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Cal QuantrillTEX starter / home
Projected K3.3Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -118 draftkings / U -103 betonlineag5 books at this line
Model over 3.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.584%over
O 2.564%over
O 3.542%over
O 4.524%under
O 5.512%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+110 / -130SFG / TEX moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -112 / U -109
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total