MLB / mlb / live
SEA 4 / TEX 5SEASeattle Mariners54%
TEXTexas Rangers46%
at Globe Life Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSEAAway starterBryce MillerConfirmed
Model pickSEA moneyline54%Model 20260720_auto
TEXHome starterMacKenzie GoreConfirmed
SEA54%ML -116
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
TEX46%ML -103
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.3 pts
Model (SEA 54.4%) aligns with market (SEA 52.1%). Miller's 2.27 ERA in 63 IP is legitimate vs Gore's 4.8. SEA offense underperforms but pitching gap favors away side. Total: market 7.5 vs model 8.99 is wide; lean under with Miller.
offense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Bryce MillerSEA starter / away
Projected K5.4Actual 0 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -135 betmgm / U +117 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%under
O 2.589%under
O 3.577%under
O 4.561%under
O 5.544%under
O 6.529%under
O 7.518%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
MacKenzie GoreTEX starter / home
Projected K5.7Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +122 fanduel / U -140 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 6.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.566%over
O 5.550%under
O 6.535%under
O 7.523%under
O 8.514%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-116 / -103SEA / TEX moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-170)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total