sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

DET 4 / TEX 10
DETDetroit Tigers38%
TEXTexas Rangers62%

at Globe Life Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
DETAway starterFramber ValdezConfirmed
Model pickTEX moneyline62%Model 20260629_auto
TEXHome starterNathan EovaldiConfirmed
DET38%ML -108
Base model probability62%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability50%Selected moneyline pick
TEX62%ML -110

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanOver
Model-market gap11.7 pts

Model has TEX at 62% but market is 54% (Pinnacle -124). Model's 8.89 total is 1.89 runs above market's 7.0—a massive gap. DET has better offense (5.1 RPG vs 4.5) despite worse record. Model likely overweighting park factor (1.04) and missing recency in pitcher form. Market is more credible here; lean DET and over.

total far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.9
Projected total8.8
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Framber ValdezDET starter / away
Projected K4.5Actual 1 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +125 bovada / U -148 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.531%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%under
O 2.582%under
O 3.565%under
O 4.547%under
O 5.531%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Nathan EovaldiTEX starter / home
Projected K6.7Actual 9 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -108 fanduel / U +100 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 6.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.596%over
O 3.589%over
O 4.579%over
O 5.565%over
O 6.550%over
O 7.536%over
O 8.524%over
O 9.515%under
O 10.59%under
O 11.55%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-108 / -110DET / TEX moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -120
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total