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SDP 7 / TEX 9
SDPSan Diego Padres43%
TEXTexas Rangers57%

at Globe Life Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SDPAway starterRandy VásquezConfirmed
Model pickTEX moneyline57%Model 20260616_auto
TEXHome starterJacob deGromConfirmed
SDP43%ML +133
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability59%Selected moneyline pick
TEX57%ML -159

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap2.0 pts

Model at 58.3% vs market 59.2% on TEX is aligned. But model total of 8.93 runs vs market 7.0 is a 1.93-run gap—structural miss. DeGrom (3.17 ERA, 10.45 K/9) at Globe Life argues under; Vásquez solid too (3.63 ERA). Model likely overweighting SDP offense (.547 OPS is typo-low). Pass on side, lean under on total given pitcher quality.

total far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.1
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Randy VásquezSDP starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -109 betrivers / U -105 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 3.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%under
O 2.574%under
O 3.554%under
O 4.535%under
O 5.521%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Jacob deGromTEX starter / home
Projected K6.8Actual 9 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -102 fanduel / U -106 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 6.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.596%over
O 3.590%over
O 4.580%over
O 5.566%over
O 6.552%over
O 7.538%over
O 8.526%over
O 9.516%under
O 10.510%under
O 11.56%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+133 / -159SDP / TEX moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+138)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -120 / U +100
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total