MLB / mlb / live
KCR 1 / TEX 9KCRKansas City Royals42%
TEXTexas Rangers58%
at Globe Life Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedKCRAway starterStephen Kolek
Model pickTEX moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
TEXHome starterMacKenzie Gore
KCR42%ML +108
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
TEX58%ML -128
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.6 pts
Kolek has no recorded IP/ERA/K9/WHIP despite 10 starts listed — clear data quality issue. Gore's 5.1 IP across 10 starts averages 0.5 IP per outing, which is nonsensical. Model projects 9.05 runs vs market 7.5, a 1.55-run gap flagged correctly. Without reliable pitcher data, cannot form independent view on side or total.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+108 / -128KCR / TEX moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+170)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -108 / U -114
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total