MLB / mlb / live
KCR 3 / TEX 6KCRKansas City Royals42%
TEXTexas Rangers58%
at Globe Life Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedKCRAway starterMichael Wacha
Model pickTEX moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
TEXHome starterJack Leiter
KCR42%ML -105
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability51%Selected moneyline pick
TEX58%ML -114
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap6.6 pts
Model has TEX 57.5% vs market 51.3% — modest comparison on a sub-.500 home team. KCR offense is brutal (.518 OPS, 2.8 RPG) but Wacha's 0.0 ERA in 6.0 IP is microscopic sample noise. Model total 9.02 vs market 7.5 is a 1.5-run gap; with Wacha dealing and KCR ice-cold bats, lean under. TEX slight favorite but no conviction.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-105 / -114KCR / TEX moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-157)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -108 / U -110
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total