MLB / mlb / live
KCR 3 / TEX 6KCRKansas City Royals42%
TEXTexas Rangers58%
at Globe Life Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedKCRAway starterMichael Wacha
Model pickTEX moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
TEXHome starterJack Leiter
KCR42%ML -105
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
TEX58%ML -114
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.3 pts
Model has TEX 57.5% vs market 51.3% — modest comparison on a sub-.500 home team. KCR offense is brutal (.518 OPS, 2.8 RPG) but Wacha's 0.0 ERA in 6.0 IP is microscopic sample noise. Model total 9.02 vs market 7.5 is a 1.5-run gap; with Wacha dealing and KCR ice-cold bats, lean under. TEX slight favorite but no conviction.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-105 / -114KCR / TEX moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-157)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -108 / U -110
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total