MLB / mlb / live
HOU 5 / TEX 1HOUHouston Astros37%
TEXTexas Rangers63%
at Globe Life Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedHOUAway starterSpencer Arrighetti
Model pickTEX moneyline63%Model 20260414_1
TEXHome starterNathan Eovaldi
HOU37%ML +122
Base model probability63%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability57%Selected moneyline pick
TEX63%ML -145
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap6.1 pts
Model has TEX at 63% vs. market 56%, but Eovaldi's 9.64 ERA in just 4.2 IP this season is unusable signal—likely injured or returning. Arrighetti has null stats despite 10 starts, indicating severe data quality issues. Total_far_from_market flag (9.07 vs. 7.0) reflects structural data problems rather than genuine comparison. Cannot form defensible view without reliable pitcher baselines.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin1.1
Projected total9.1
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+122 / -145HOU / TEX moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -119 / U -101
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total