MLB / mlb / live
HOU 4 / TEX 3HOUHouston Astros42%
TEXTexas Rangers58%
at Globe Life Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedHOUAway starterMike Burrows
Model pickTEX moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
TEXHome starterJacob deGrom
HOU42%ML +123
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
TEX58%ML -146
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.1 pts
Model and market align on TEX ~58-59%. deGrom returning from injury (10 starts, missing rate stats) is structural comparison vs Burrows' 7.94 ERA in limited work. Model's 8.92 total vs market 7.5 is huge gap; park factor 1.04 and HOU bullpen bleeding runs support over. deGrom uncertainty cuts both ways but Burrows is genuinely hittable.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total8.9
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+123 / -146HOU / TEX moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -118 / U -103
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total