MLB / mlb / live
HOU 7 / TEX 10HOUHouston Astros52%
TEXTexas Rangers48%
at Globe Life Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedHOUAway starterJason Alexander
Model pickHOU moneyline52%Model 20260414_1
TEXHome starterJack Leiter
HOU52%ML +112
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
TEX48%ML -132
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.3 pts
Market favors TEX at 55.1% vs model's HOU at 52.2%. Both teams weak offenses (3.6-3.9 RPG) but Globe Life is a hitter's park (PF 1.04). Pitcher stats missing for both starters; model leaning HOU despite offense_defense_mismatch flag. Prefer home side at coin-flip confidence. Total: model 9.02 vs market 8.0, lean over given park.
offense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.0
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+112 / -132HOU / TEX moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+158)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -112
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total