MLB / mlb / live
HOU 7 / TEX 10HOUHouston Astros52%
TEXTexas Rangers48%
at Globe Life Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedHOUAway starterJason Alexander
Model pickHOU moneyline52%Model 20260414_1
TEXHome starterJack Leiter
HOU52%ML +112
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability45%Selected moneyline pick
TEX48%ML -132
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total leanOver
Model-market gap6.9 pts
Market favors TEX at 55.1% vs model's HOU at 52.2%. Both teams weak offenses (3.6-3.9 RPG) but Globe Life is a hitter's park (PF 1.04). Pitcher stats missing for both starters; model leaning HOU despite offense_defense_mismatch flag. Prefer home side at coin-flip confidence. Total: model 9.02 vs market 8.0, lean over given park.
offense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.0
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+112 / -132HOU / TEX moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+158)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -112
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total