MLB / mlb / live
CHC 0 / TEX 3CHCChicago Cubs59%
TEXTexas Rangers41%
at Globe Life Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHCAway starterJameson Taillon
Model pickCHC moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
TEXHome starterJacob deGrom
CHC59%ML +110
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
TEX41%ML -130
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time12.7 pts
Model favors CHC at 58.6% vs market's 46% (inverted from -123 home price). That's a 12.6pp gap flagged as large disagreement. CHC's 27-13 record and 5.1 RPG offense support the lean, but deGrom starting for TEX is a wildcard the market respects more than the model. Total: model 9.48 vs market 8.0 suggests over, aided by 1.04 park factor.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin1.9
Projected total9.5
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+110 / -130CHC / TEX moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+164)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -105 / U -115
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total