MLB / mlb / live
CHC 0 / TEX 3CHCChicago Cubs59%
TEXTexas Rangers41%
at Globe Life Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHCAway starterJameson Taillon
Model pickCHC moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
TEXHome starterJacob deGrom
CHC59%ML +110
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability46%Selected moneyline pick
TEX41%ML -130
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanOver
Model-market gap12.9 pts
Model favors CHC at 58.6% vs market's 46% (inverted from -123 home price). That's a 12.6pp gap flagged as large disagreement. CHC's 27-13 record and 5.1 RPG offense support the lean, but deGrom starting for TEX is a wildcard the market respects more than the model. Total: model 9.48 vs market 8.0 suggests over, aided by 1.04 park factor.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin1.9
Projected total9.5
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+110 / -130CHC / TEX moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+164)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -105 / U -115
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total