MLB / mlb / live
CHC 7 / TEX 1CHCChicago Cubs59%
TEXTexas Rangers41%
at Globe Life Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHCAway starterBen Brown
Model pickCHC moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
TEXHome starterKumar Rocker
CHC59%ML -139
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability56%Selected moneyline pick
TEX41%ML +116
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanOver
Model-market gap3.0 pts
CHC 26-12 vs TEX 17-20, market and model converge on Cubs ~58-59%. Rocker's missing stats are a data gap but TEX's 2.7 RPG offense is league-worst. Model's 9.31 total exceeds market 8.5 by 0.81 runs; CHC's 5.9 RPG and TEX bullpen vulnerability (home_rolling_short_home_runs_allowed high SHAP) support over lean.
Projection Context
Projected margin1.2
Projected total9.3
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-139 / +116CHC / TEX moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -110
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total