MLB / mlb / live
NYY 4 / TEX 2NYYNew York Yankees56%
TEXTexas Rangers44%
at Globe Life Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYYAway starterMax Fried
Model pickNYY moneyline56%Model 20260414_1
TEXHome starterJack Leiter
NYY56%ML -175
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
TEX44%ML +148
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.3 pts
NYY favored by both model (55.7%) and market (60.9% implied). Yankees averaging 6.4 RPG vs TEX 4.0 RPG over 28 games each. Fried's 0.00 ERA in 6.1 IP is absurdly small sample; Leiter stats missing entirely. Model projects 9.11 total vs market 8.0—gap suggests model sees offensive comparison. Take NYY and lean over.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-175 / +148NYY / TEX moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -115 / U -105
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total