MLB / mlb / live
NYY 3 / TEX 2NYYNew York Yankees57%
TEXTexas Rangers43%
at Globe Life Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYYAway starterCam Schlittler
Model pickNYY moneyline57%Model 20260414_1
TEXHome starterJacob deGrom
NYY57%ML -120
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability52%Selected moneyline pick
TEX43%ML +100
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap5.2 pts
Model has NYY at 57% but market is a coin flip (home +105). TEX has Jacob deGrom on the mound—an ace who should suppress NYY's 6.4 RPG offense. Model predicts 9.26 runs vs market 7.5; that 1.76-run gap screams the model is misweighting deGrom's impact and the park (1.04 is neutral, not high). Take TEX plus money and lean under the total.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.3
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-120 / +100NYY / TEX moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-167)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -120
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total