MLB / mlb / live
PIT 1 / TEX 6PITPittsburgh Pirates55%
TEXTexas Rangers45%
at Globe Life Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPITAway starterBubba Chandler
Model pickPIT moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
TEXHome starterJacob deGrom
PIT55%ML +135
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
TEX45%ML -162
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time14.4 pts
Model has PIT at 55.2% but market strongly disagrees at TEX 59.1%. Missing pitcher stats for both deGrom and Chandler makes this opaque. Model's 9.15 total vs market 8.0 is a 1.15-run gap favoring over, but without ERA/WHIP data I can't validate. Lean TEX with market, lean over on total given PIT's 6.2 RPG offense.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.2
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+135 / -162PIT / TEX moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -106 / U -114
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total