MLB / mlb / live
PIT 1 / TEX 6PITPittsburgh Pirates55%
TEXTexas Rangers45%
at Globe Life Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPITAway starterBubba Chandler
Model pickPIT moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
TEXHome starterJacob deGrom
PIT55%ML +135
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability41%Selected moneyline pick
TEX45%ML -162
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total leanOver
Model-market gap14.5 pts
Model has PIT at 55.2% but market strongly disagrees at TEX 59.1%. Missing pitcher stats for both deGrom and Chandler makes this opaque. Model's 9.15 total vs market 8.0 is a 1.15-run gap favoring over, but without ERA/WHIP data I can't validate. Lean TEX with market, lean over on total given PIT's 6.2 RPG offense.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.2
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+135 / -162PIT / TEX moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -106 / U -114
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total