MLB / mlb / live
BOS 1 / TBR 5BOSBoston Red Sox39%
TBRTampa Bay Rays61%
at Tropicana Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBOSAway starterPatrick SandovalConfirmed
Model pickTBR moneyline61%Model 20260914_auto
TBRHome starterGriffin JaxConfirmed
BOS39%ML +126
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
TBR61%ML -150
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total8.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Patrick SandovalBOS starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -149 betonlineag / U +132 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.559%over
O 4.540%over
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Griffin JaxTBR starter / home
Projected K5.3Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +130 bovada / U -163 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.560%over
O 5.544%under
O 6.529%under
O 7.518%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+126 / -150BOS / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+143)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total