MLB / mlb / live
HOU 2 / TBR 3HOUHouston Astros44%
TBRTampa Bay Rays56%
at Tropicana Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedHOUAway starterPeter LambertConfirmed
Model pickTBR moneyline56%Model 20260907_auto
TBRHome starterIan SeymourConfirmed
HOU44%ML +126
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
TBR56%ML -148
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total7.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Peter LambertHOU starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +132 betonlineag / U -160 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.549%under
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Ian SeymourTBR starter / home
Projected K6.5Actual 10 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +110 betonlineag / U -103 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.562%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.588%over
O 4.576%over
O 5.562%over
O 6.547%over
O 7.533%over
O 8.522%over
O 9.514%over
O 10.58%under
O 11.54%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+126 / -148HOU / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+143)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -114 / U -105
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total