MLB / mlb / live
HOU 4 / TBR 14HOUHouston Astros48%
TBRTampa Bay Rays52%
at Tropicana Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedHOUAway starterHayden WesneskiConfirmed
Model pickTBR moneyline52%Model 20260907_auto
TBRHome starterFreddy PeraltaConfirmed
HOU48%ML +110
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
TBR52%ML -132
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total8.7
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Hayden WesneskiHOU starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +110 draftkings / U -130 fanatics7 books at this line
Model over 3.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%under
O 3.553%under
O 4.534%under
O 5.520%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Freddy PeraltaTBR starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -161 betonlineag / U +128 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.549%under
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+110 / -132HOU / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+157)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -116 / U -3
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total