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HOU 1 / TBR 3
HOUHouston Astros39%
TBRTampa Bay Rays61%

at Tropicana Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
HOUAway starterMiguel UllolaConfirmed
Model pickTBR moneyline61%Model 20260907_auto
TBRHome starterDrew RasmussenConfirmed
HOU39%ML +160
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
TBR61%ML -195

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.4 pts

Model (61.1%) and market (60.8%) converge on Tampa Bay, and the underlying profile supports it: Rasmussen's 2.88 ERA and 0.91 WHIP against a Houston offense at 3.8 RPG and .695 OPS. Ullola's 7 IP sample tells us little, which caps confidence. Model's 8.56 total sits a run above the 7.5 line; Rasmussen plus a weak HOU bat argues the other way.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.9
Projected total8.3
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Miguel UllolaHOU starter / awayThin data
Projected K2.9Actual 0 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.578%under
O 2.555%under
O 3.533%under
O 4.517%under
O 5.58%under
O 6.53%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Drew RasmussenTBR starter / home
Projected K6.0Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -104 fanduel / U -110 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 5.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.583%over
O 4.570%under
O 5.554%under
O 6.539%under
O 7.526%under
O 8.516%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+160 / -195HOU / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+112)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total