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SDP 4 / TBR 5
SDPSan Diego Padres49%
TBRTampa Bay Rays51%

at Tropicana Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SDPAway starterRobbie RayConfirmed
Model pickTBR moneyline51%Model 20260824_auto
TBRHome starterDrew RasmussenConfirmed
SDP49%ML +140
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
TBR51%ML -164

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time9.7 pts

Market implies 60.6% on TBR vs model's 50.9% — a 10-point gap I side with the market on, given Rasmussen's 2.95 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over 140.1 IP against Ray's 1.31 WHIP. Model's 9.15-run total sits 2.15 above the 7.0 line despite a neutral park (1.0037) and both starters under 3.50 ERA; that looks like a structural miss, so under.

Large model-market gaptotal far from marketace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.2
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Robbie RaySDP starter / away
Projected K3.7Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -143 betonlineag / U +128 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 3.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%over
O 3.551%over
O 4.532%under
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Drew RasmussenTBR starter / home
Projected K5.6Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +105 bovada / U -120 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%over
O 4.565%over
O 5.549%over
O 6.534%under
O 7.522%under
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+140 / -164SDP / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+132)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -114 / U -105
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total