MLB / mlb / live
SDP 6 / TBR 7SDPSan Diego Padres42%
TBRTampa Bay Rays58%
at Tropicana Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSDPAway starterWalker BuehlerConfirmed
Model pickTBR moneyline58%Model 20260824_auto
TBRHome starterNick MartinezConfirmed
SDP42%ML +110
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
TBR58%ML -130
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total8.8
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Walker BuehlerSDP starter / away
Projected K3.6Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +130 draftkings / U -162 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 3.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.569%over
O 3.549%under
O 4.530%under
O 5.517%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Nick MartinezTBR starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +121 draftkings / U -150 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 3.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.555%over
O 4.536%under
O 5.521%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+110 / -130SDP / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+158)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -112
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total