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CHW 9 / TBR 1
CHWChicago White Sox45%
TBRTampa Bay Rays55%

at Tropicana Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CHWAway starterAnthony KayConfirmed
Model pickTBR moneyline55%Model 20260727_auto
TBRHome starterGriffin JaxConfirmed
CHW45%ML +125
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
TBR55%ML -147

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.9 pts

Market implies TBR 59.6%, model has 54.8% — material disagreement favoring home side. CHW offense (4.3 RPG, .729 OPS) superior to TBR (2.9 RPG, .802 OPS) but model leans TBR anyway. Model total 8.74 vs market 7.5 is a 1.24 run gap; Kay's 4.25 ERA in 103 IP supports over lean. Neutral park, no structural flags, defer to market on side.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.7
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Anthony KayCHW starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +132 fanduel / U -165 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 4.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%under
O 4.538%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Griffin JaxTBR starter / home
Projected K6.1Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +120 draftkings / U -135 betmgm5 books at this line
Model over 6.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.585%over
O 4.572%over
O 5.556%over
O 6.541%over
O 7.528%over
O 8.517%under
O 9.510%under
O 10.56%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+125 / -147CHW / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+146)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total