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scheduled
CHWChicago White Sox45%
TBRTampa Bay Rays55%

at Tropicana Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CHWAway starterJordan HicksConfirmed
Model pickTBR moneyline55%Model 20260727_auto
TBRHome starterDrew RasmussenConfirmed
CHW45%ML +146
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability61%Selected moneyline pick
TBR55%ML -172

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap6.1 pts

Model has TBR 54.8%, market implies 60.6%. Both pitchers sub-3.20 ERA qualifies ace_matchup. Hicks small sample (31 IP) but 10.45 K/9 real. Market favors home stronger than model; defer to Pinnacle. Total under 7.5 aligns with ace matchup structure.

ace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Lines
Jordan HicksCHW starter / away
Projected K3.5
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%
O 2.567%
O 3.546%
O 4.528%
O 5.515%
O 6.57%
O 7.53%
O 8.51%
O 9.50%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Drew RasmussenTBR starter / home
Projected K6.0
Best price at 5.55.5O -125 betmgm / U +108 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%
O 2.593%
O 3.583%
O 4.570%
O 5.554%
O 6.539%
O 7.526%
O 8.516%
O 9.59%
O 10.55%
O 11.53%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+146 / -172CHW / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+124)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total