MLB / mlb / live
CHW 0 / TBR 1CHWChicago White Sox45%
TBRTampa Bay Rays55%
at Tropicana Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHWAway starterJordan HicksConfirmed
Model pickTBR moneyline55%Model 20260727_auto
TBRHome starterDrew RasmussenConfirmed
CHW45%ML +146
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
TBR55%ML -172
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.8 pts
Model has TBR 54.8%, market implies 60.6%. Both pitchers sub-3.20 ERA qualifies ace_matchup. Hicks small sample (31 IP) but 10.45 K/9 real. Market favors home stronger than model; defer to Pinnacle. Total under 7.5 aligns with ace matchup structure.
ace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Jordan HicksCHW starter / away
Projected K3.5Actual 1 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%under
O 2.567%under
O 3.546%under
O 4.528%under
O 5.515%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Drew RasmussenTBR starter / home
Projected K6.0Actual 10 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -132 fanduel / U +123 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.583%over
O 4.570%over
O 5.554%over
O 6.539%over
O 7.526%over
O 8.516%over
O 9.59%over
O 10.55%under
O 11.53%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+146 / -172CHW / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+125)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total