MLB / mlb / live
scheduledTEXTexas Rangers54%
TBRTampa Bay Rays46%
at Tropicana Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTEXAway starterMacKenzie GoreProbable
Model pickTEX moneyline54%Model 20260727_auto
TBRHome starterCasey LeguminaProbable
TEX54%ML +120
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability44%Selected moneyline pick
TBR46%ML -143
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total leanOver
Model-market gap10.6 pts
Model likes TEX 54.2%, market has TBR at 56.6% — a 12-point swing triggering the disagreement flag. TBR's offense (4.7 RPG, .802 OPS) is superior to TEX (5.4 RPG, .698 OPS), and Gore's 4.82 ERA in 115 IP is mediocre. Model's 8.83 total vs market 7.5 suggests structural miss on offense; lean TBR side and over on total.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total10.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+120 / -143TEX / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total