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CLE 0 / TBR 3
CLECleveland Guardians54%
TBRTampa Bay Rays46%

at Tropicana Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CLEAway starterTanner BibeeConfirmed
Model pickCLE moneyline54%Model 20260720_auto
TBRHome starterNick MartinezConfirmed
CLE54%ML +100
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
TBR46%ML -118

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time9.9 pts

Model favors CLE 54.4% vs market 44.6%—a 9.8pp gap flagged as large disagreement. CLE offense is weak (.600 OPS, 4.4 RPG) yet model picks them on road, triggering offense_defense mismatch. Martinez's 2.59 ERA in 111 IP is elite; Bibee's 3.86 is solid. Market likely correct on TBR home comparison. Model's 9.25 total vs market 8.0 suggests over lean, driven by OBP/HR features despite neutral park.

Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.2
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Tanner BibeeCLE starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +133 draftkings / U -167 betonlineag4 books at this line
Model over 4.533%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.572%over
O 3.552%over
O 4.533%over
O 5.519%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Nick MartinezTBR starter / home
Projected K3.9Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +110 betrivers / U -123 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.574%over
O 3.554%over
O 4.535%over
O 5.520%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+100 / -118CLE / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+159)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -111
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total