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SEA 2 / TBR 7
SEASeattle Mariners57%
TBRTampa Bay Rays43%

at Tropicana Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SEAAway starterLuis CastilloConfirmed
Model pickSEA moneyline57%Model 20260706_auto
TBRHome starterNick MartinezConfirmed
SEA57%ML +106
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability47%Selected moneyline pick
TBR43%ML -125

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap10.5 pts

Model favors SEA 57% but market has TBR -119 (53% implied). Away pitcher is fallback data (Castillo stats unavailable), making model's SEA lean structurally suspect. Martinez 2.61 ERA in 100 IP is legitimate. Tropicana neutral park. Market knows Castillo's true form; I lean TBR at home and under the 8.0 total given pitcher uncertainty.

pitcher data fallbackLarge model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Luis CastilloSEA starter / awayThin data
Projected K3.0
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.580%
O 2.558%
O 3.536%
O 4.520%
O 5.59%
O 6.54%
O 7.52%
O 8.51%
O 9.50%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Nick MartinezTBR starter / home
Projected K4.3
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%
O 2.579%
O 3.561%
O 4.542%
O 5.526%
O 6.515%
O 7.57%
O 8.54%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+106 / -125SEA / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+162)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total