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KCR 2 / TBR 13
KCRKansas City Royals53%
TBRTampa Bay Rays47%

at Tropicana Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
KCRAway starterSeth LugoConfirmed
Model pickKCR moneyline53%Model 20260622_auto
TBRHome starterCasey LeguminaConfirmed
KCR53%ML +123
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability43%Selected moneyline pick
TBR47%ML -147

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap10.4 pts

Market has TBR -130 (55.4% implied), model has KCR 53.4%. Model is wrong-way on this one. TBR offense (4.5 RPG, .802 OPS) vs KCR (3.1 RPG, .518 OPS) is stark. Lean home but thin comparison vs market.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.2
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Seth LugoKCR starter / away
Projected K3.5Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +128 betrivers / U -140 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.528%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%over
O 2.568%over
O 3.547%under
O 4.528%under
O 5.515%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Casey LeguminaTBR starter / home
Projected K2.4Actual 0 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.568%under
O 2.542%under
O 3.522%under
O 4.510%under
O 5.54%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+123 / -147KCR / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -112 / U -108
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total