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KCR 3 / TBR 5
KCRKansas City Royals46%
TBRTampa Bay Rays54%

at Tropicana Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
KCRAway starterNoah CameronConfirmed
Model pickTBR moneyline54%Model 20260622_auto
TBRHome starterGriffin JaxConfirmed
KCR46%ML +128
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability58%Selected moneyline pick
TBR54%ML -154

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#11
Total leanOver
Model-market gap3.9 pts

Model has TBR 54%, market 57%—reasonable convergence. TBR's 1.5 RPG is anomalously low for 76 games with .802 OPS; regression probable. Model total 8.76 vs market 7.5 is a 1.26-run gap favoring over. Jax 3.67 ERA in 49 IP and Cameron 4.2 ERA suggest runs available, neutral park.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Noah CameronKCR starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +115 bovada / U -124 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.548%over
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Griffin JaxTBR starter / home
Projected K3.9Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -130 fanatics / U +128 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 4.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.554%over
O 4.535%over
O 5.520%over
O 6.511%over
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+128 / -154KCR / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -108 / U -112
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total