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WSN 2 / TBR 5
WSNWashington Nationals51%
TBRTampa Bay Rays49%

at Tropicana Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
WSNAway starterPJ PoulinConfirmed
Model pickWSN moneyline51%Model 20260616_auto
TBRHome starterGriffin JaxConfirmed
WSN51%ML +133
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
TBR49%ML -160

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.0 pts

Model has WSN 54.5% but market slightly favors TBR at 53.5% — near-coinflip. Model total of 9.05 vs market 7.5 is a 1.55-run gap in pitcher-friendly Tropicana (PF 0.93). Both pitchers sub-4.00 ERA over 10+ starts. Model overweighting recent offensive noise; lean under on total, pass-to-lean on side.

Large model-market gaptotal far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total8.9
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
PJ PoulinWSN starter / away
Projected K2.1Actual 1 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.561%under
O 2.534%under
O 3.516%under
O 4.56%under
O 5.52%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Griffin JaxTBR starter / home
Projected K3.7Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -115 betrivers / U +100 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.531%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.570%over
O 3.549%over
O 4.531%over
O 5.517%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+133 / -160WSN / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total