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WSN 4 / TBR 3
WSNWashington Nationals57%
TBRTampa Bay Rays43%

at Tropicana Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
WSNAway starterCade CavalliConfirmed
Model pickWSN moneyline57%Model 20260616_auto
TBRHome starterIan SeymourConfirmed
WSN57%ML +104
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability47%Selected moneyline pick
TBR43%ML -122

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanOver
Model-market gap9.6 pts

Model has WSN at 56.8% but market is near pick'em (52.9% TBR). Model sees +0.66 runs comparison from total vs market 8.0. WSN averaging 5.5 RPG with .820 OPS while TBR sits at 3.2 RPG. Seymour's 4.93 ERA in 38 IP suggests vulnerability. Tropicana neutral park. Lean WSN side and over on total given offensive disparity.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin1.0
Projected total9.5
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Cade CavalliWSN starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +100 betrivers / U -105 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%under
O 2.583%under
O 3.567%under
O 4.549%under
O 5.533%under
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Ian SeymourTBR starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -103 betonlineag / U -104 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.565%over
O 4.547%under
O 5.530%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+104 / -122WSN / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+161)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -112 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total