MLB / mlb / live
WSN 3 / TBR 4WSNWashington Nationals49%
TBRTampa Bay Rays51%
at Tropicana Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedWSNAway starterAndrew AlvarezConfirmed
Model pickTBR moneyline51%Model 20260616_auto
TBRHome starterNick MartinezConfirmed
WSN49%ML +112
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
TBR51%ML -134
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.6
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Andrew AlvarezWSN starter / away
Projected K3.7Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -154 draftkings / U +121 draftkings3 books at this line
Model over 3.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%over
O 3.550%over
O 4.531%over
O 5.518%over
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Nick MartinezTBR starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -135 betonlineag / U +118 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 3.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.556%over
O 4.537%over
O 5.522%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+112 / -134WSN / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+156)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -102 / U -118
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total