MLB / mlb / live
BOS 3 / TBR 4BOSBoston Red Sox42%
TBRTampa Bay Rays58%
at Tropicana Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBOSAway starterPayton Tolle
Model pickTBR moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
TBRHome starterNick Martinez
BOS42%ML -120
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability48%Selected moneyline pick
TBR58%ML +100
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap10.3 pts
Model has TBR 58% but market shows BOS favored at -110 (52.4% implied). Model's 9.13 total vs market 7.5 is a 1.6-run structural miss. Neutral park, no ace matchup to justify either extreme. Both pitchers lack resolved ERA/WHIP data despite 10 starts each—data quality issue masked by 'full' label. Defer to market on side, lean under on inflated total.
Large model-market gaptotal far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-120 / +100BOS / TBR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-168)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -120
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total