MLB / mlb / live
BOS 3 / TBR 4BOSBoston Red Sox42%
TBRTampa Bay Rays58%
at Tropicana Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBOSAway starterPayton Tolle
Model pickTBR moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
TBRHome starterNick Martinez
BOS42%ML -120
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
TBR58%ML +100
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time9.5 pts
Model has TBR 58% but market shows BOS favored at -110 (52.4% implied). Model's 9.13 total vs market 7.5 is a 1.6-run structural miss. Neutral park, no ace matchup to justify either extreme. Both pitchers lack resolved ERA/WHIP data despite 10 starts each—data quality issue masked by 'full' label. Defer to market on side, lean under on inflated total.
Large model-market gaptotal far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-120 / +100BOS / TBR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-168)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -120
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total