MLB / mlb / live
DET 8 / TBR 0DETDetroit Tigers40%
TBRTampa Bay Rays60%
at Tropicana Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedDETAway starterJack Flaherty
Model pickTBR moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
TBRHome starterSteven Matz
DET40%ML +122
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability57%Selected moneyline pick
TBR60%ML -145
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap3.4 pts
Model likes TBR at 60.2% vs market's 56.1% — a 4pp comparison. But Matz (7.20 ERA, 3.6 K/9 in 50 IP) is getting torched, and DET's away opponent win% is driving the model's confidence. TBR's 36-21 record is strong but Matz's form argues against laying -134. Lean DET at plus-money.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total8.6
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+122 / -145DET / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+136)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total