MLB / mlb / live
DET 8 / TBR 0DETDetroit Tigers40%
TBRTampa Bay Rays60%
at Tropicana Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedDETAway starterJack Flaherty
Model pickTBR moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
TBRHome starterSteven Matz
DET40%ML +122
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
TBR60%ML -145
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.1 pts
Model likes TBR at 60.2% vs market's 56.1% — a 4pp comparison. But Matz (7.20 ERA, 3.6 K/9 in 50 IP) is getting torched, and DET's away opponent win% is driving the model's confidence. TBR's 36-21 record is strong but Matz's form argues against laying -134. Lean DET at plus-money.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total8.6
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+122 / -145DET / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+136)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total