MLB / mlb / live
LAA 2 / TBR 5LAALos Angeles Angels40%
TBRTampa Bay Rays60%
at Tropicana Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLAAAway starterJack Kochanowicz
Model pickTBR moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
TBRHome starterShane McClanahan
LAA40%ML +175
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
TBR60%ML -210
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.2 pts
Model at 60% vs market 64% on TBR. McClanahan has no recorded IP/ERA stats despite 10 starts—data quality concern. Kochanowicz 11.25 ERA in 4 IP is tiny sample noise. Market total 8.0 vs model 8.8 is close; LAA's 5.9 RPG and .860 OPS argues over.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total8.8
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+175 / -210LAA / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+100)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -107 / U -113
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total