MLB / mlb / live
LAA 2 / TBR 5LAALos Angeles Angels40%
TBRTampa Bay Rays60%
at Tropicana Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLAAAway starterJack Kochanowicz
Model pickTBR moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
TBRHome starterShane McClanahan
LAA40%ML +175
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability65%Selected moneyline pick
TBR60%ML -210
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total leanOver
Model-market gap4.9 pts
Model at 60% vs market 64% on TBR. McClanahan has no recorded IP/ERA stats despite 10 starts—data quality concern. Kochanowicz 11.25 ERA in 4 IP is tiny sample noise. Market total 8.0 vs model 8.8 is close; LAA's 5.9 RPG and .860 OPS argues over.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total8.8
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+175 / -210LAA / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+100)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -107 / U -113
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total