MLB / mlb / live
LAA 5 / TBR 8LAALos Angeles Angels46%
TBRTampa Bay Rays54%
at Tropicana Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLAAAway starterWalbert Ureña
Model pickTBR moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
TBRHome starterNick Martinez
LAA46%ML +132
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
TBR54%ML -159
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.8 pts
Market has TBR at 62.3% vs model's 53.6%—an 8.7pp gap flagged as large disagreement. Model sees this closer to coin flip while market is confident. LAA's .860 OPS is elite but they're 22-35; TBR is 34-19 with strong home record. Ureña's 1.2 IP sample is meaningless noise. Model total of 9.17 vs market 8.0 suggests over lean, supported by LAA offense.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.2
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+132 / -159LAA / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+134)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -111
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total