MLB / mlb / live
BAL 6 / TBR 16BALBaltimore Orioles55%
TBRTampa Bay Rays45%
at Tropicana Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBALAway starterTrevor Rogers
Model pickBAL moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
TBRHome starterShane McClanahan
BAL55%ML +131
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
TBR45%ML -153
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time13.9 pts
Model picks BAL at 55% but market has TBR -149 (59% implied). TBR is 30-15 vs BAL 21-26; BAL offense is anemic at 3.4 RPG/.662 OPS. Rogers' 0.00 ERA in 7.0 IP is meaningless sample. McClanahan stats missing but TBR home with better record justifies market. Model total 8.95 vs market 7.5 suggests over but thin pitcher data limits conviction.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+131 / -153BAL / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total