MLB / mlb / live
MIA 10 / TBR 5MIAMiami Marlins46%
TBRTampa Bay Rays54%
at Tropicana Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMIAAway starterSandy Alcantara
Model pickTBR moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
TBRHome starterNick Martinez
MIA46%ML +120
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
TBR54%ML -145
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.8 pts
Model has TBR 53.6%, market implies 56.4% — thin comparison to Tampa. Alcantara's 0.00 ERA in 7 IP is tiny sample noise, not signal. Model total 9.02 vs market 7.5 is a 1.5-run gap; flag fired correctly. Lean under with market.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+120 / -145MIA / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total