MLB / mlb / live
MIA 3 / TBR 6MIAMiami Marlins49%
TBRTampa Bay Rays51%
at Tropicana Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMIAAway starterEury Pérez
Model pickTBR moneyline51%Model 20260414_1
TBRHome starterDrew Rasmussen
MIA49%ML +135
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
TBR51%ML -160
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.6 pts
Model sees coin flip (50.6%), market has TBR at 59.2%. Model's 9.12 total vs market 7.0 is a 2+ run gap—huge structural miss. Rasmussen's 1.8 ERA in tiny 5.0 IP sample is noise, but Pérez (3.86 ERA, 10.29 K/9 in 7 IP) also small sample. Tropicana neutral park. Market knows something model doesn't on total; lean under at 7.
Large model-market gaptotal far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+135 / -160MIA / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+137)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O 0 / U -122
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total