MLB / mlb / live
MIA 2 / TBR 7MIAMiami Marlins45%
TBRTampa Bay Rays55%
at Tropicana Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMIAAway starterJanson Junk
Model pickTBR moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
TBRHome starterIan Seymour
MIA45%ML +105
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability53%Selected moneyline pick
TBR55%ML -124
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total leanOver
Model-market gap1.5 pts
Model has MIA 52.2%, market has TBR 53.8% — very tight. TBR 28-14 at home vs MIA 20-24, .802 OPS vs .774. Pitcher stats null for both sides limits conviction. Model total 9.07 vs market 8.0 is a 1+ run gap; SHAP flags BP/SP metrics but with no ERA/WHIP data I can't justify fading market total. Lean home on record strength only.
offense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.0
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+105 / -124MIA / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+164)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -105 / U -115
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total