MLB / mlb / live
MIA 2 / TBR 7MIAMiami Marlins45%
TBRTampa Bay Rays55%
at Tropicana Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMIAAway starterJanson Junk
Model pickTBR moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
TBRHome starterIan Seymour
MIA45%ML +105
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
TBR55%ML -124
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.0 pts
Model has MIA 52.2%, market has TBR 53.8% — very tight. TBR 28-14 at home vs MIA 20-24, .802 OPS vs .774. Pitcher stats null for both sides limits conviction. Model total 9.07 vs market 8.0 is a 1+ run gap; SHAP flags BP/SP metrics but with no ERA/WHIP data I can't justify fading market total. Lean home on record strength only.
offense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.0
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+105 / -124MIA / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+164)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -105 / U -115
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total