MLB / mlb / live
TOR 0 / TBR 3TORToronto Blue Jays46%
TBRTampa Bay Rays54%
at Tropicana Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTORAway starterPatrick Corbin
Model pickTBR moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
TBRHome starterShane McClanahan
TOR46%ML +118
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability56%Selected moneyline pick
TBR54%ML -139
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rankUnranked
Total leanOver
Model-market gap2.4 pts
Market implies TBR 55.4%, model has 53.6% — close alignment. McClanahan is elite when healthy, Corbin has been hittable for years. Model projects 8.87 runs vs market 7.5; that 1.37-run gap warrants investigation but TOR's 4.1 RPG and TBR's park neutrality support the over. Lean TBR on quality gap but no structural comparison.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+118 / -139TOR / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total