MLB / mlb / live
MIN 1 / TBR 6MINMinnesota Twins53%
TBRTampa Bay Rays47%
at Tropicana Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMINAway starterBailey Ober
Model pickMIN moneyline53%Model 20260414_1
TBRHome starterShane McClanahan
MIN53%ML +114
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability45%Selected moneyline pick
TBR47%ML -135
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanOver
Model-market gap8.3 pts
Model favors MIN 53% but market has TBR at 55% implied. TBR's 5.2 RPG and .802 OPS vs MIN's 4.5/673 supports the market. McClanahan stats missing but Ober's 6.75 ERA in 4 IP is tiny sample noise. Model total 9.1 vs market 8.5 suggests over lean despite neutral park.
offense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+114 / -135MIN / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+156)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -115
32 books30 ML24 run line22 total