MLB / mlb / live
MIN 1 / TBR 6MINMinnesota Twins53%
TBRTampa Bay Rays47%
at Tropicana Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMINAway starterBailey Ober
Model pickMIN moneyline53%Model 20260414_1
TBRHome starterShane McClanahan
MIN53%ML +114
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
TBR47%ML -135
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.8 pts
Model favors MIN 53% but market has TBR at 55% implied. TBR's 5.2 RPG and .802 OPS vs MIN's 4.5/673 supports the market. McClanahan stats missing but Ober's 6.75 ERA in 4 IP is tiny sample noise. Model total 9.1 vs market 8.5 suggests over lean despite neutral park.
offense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+114 / -135MIN / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+156)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -115
32 books30 ML24 run line22 total