MLB / mlb / live
SFG 0 / TBR 3SFGSan Francisco Giants58%
TBRTampa Bay Rays42%
at Tropicana Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSFGAway starterRobbie Ray
Model pickSFG moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
TBRHome starterShane McClanahan
SFG58%ML +120
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
TBR42%ML -145
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#11
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time15.4 pts
McClanahan has null ERA/IP/K9 despite 10 starts—data issue makes evaluating ace matchup impossible. Model picks worse team (SFG 13-18, .388 OPS) by 1 run and projects 9.02 total vs market 7.5. Without McClanahan's stats, can't justify either side. Market total looks right given Ray's 3.38 ERA.
Large model-market gaptotal far from marketoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin1.1
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+120 / -145SFG / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -113 / U -106
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total