MLB / mlb / live
CIN 1 / TBR 6CINCincinnati Reds59%
TBRTampa Bay Rays41%
at Tropicana Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCINAway starterBrandon Williamson
Model pickCIN moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
TBRHome starterNick Martinez
CIN59%ML +115
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
TBR41%ML -137
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time14.1 pts
Model has CIN at 58.6% vs market's 45.4%—a 13.2pp gap triggering the disagreement flag. CIN's 16-8 record and 5.5 RPG offense support the model's comparison, though TBR's .802 OPS is stronger than CIN's .629. Model total of 9.13 is 0.6 runs over market's 8.5; lean over given both offenses clearing 5 RPG. Market usually wins these disagreements but CIN's record backs the model here.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin1.2
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+115 / -137CIN / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -110
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total