MLB / mlb / live
CIN 1 / TBR 6CINCincinnati Reds59%
TBRTampa Bay Rays41%
at Tropicana Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCINAway starterBrandon Williamson
Model pickCIN moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
TBRHome starterNick Martinez
CIN59%ML +115
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability45%Selected moneyline pick
TBR41%ML -137
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanOver
Model-market gap14.1 pts
Model has CIN at 58.6% vs market's 45.4%—a 13.2pp gap triggering the disagreement flag. CIN's 16-8 record and 5.5 RPG offense support the model's comparison, though TBR's .802 OPS is stronger than CIN's .629. Model total of 9.13 is 0.6 runs over market's 8.5; lean over given both offenses clearing 5 RPG. Market usually wins these disagreements but CIN's record backs the model here.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin1.2
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+115 / -137CIN / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -110
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total